What are the implications for the maritime sector?
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, it has advanced and focused on central city populations such as Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mariupol, Kherson, and others, allowing it to seize rapid control over most of Ukraine's population. While Russian forces have reportedly moved into Kherson's center in the south, overall gains across axes have been limited, most likely due to a combination of ongoing logistical challenges and strong Ukrainian resistance. Despite heavy Russian shelling, the Ukrainian cities of Kahrvik, Chernihiv, and Mariupol remain in control. Some Russian forces have entered Kherson, but the military situation is still unclear.
The ongoing Ukrainian crisis and Russia's annexation of Crimea have demonstrated that however gradual, the use of hard power remains an option in the Black Sea region. The Russian takeover of Crimea has upended the Black Sea security balance and revealed important information on the region's growing militarization. The increased naval activity of Black Sea basin stakeholders has highlighted the maritime dimension of regional security. However, the military capabilities of Black Sea countries continue to be highly disparate, despite recent developments emphasizing NATO and Washington's role in offsetting Russian military potential on the Black Sea stage. Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the immediate concerns of shipping companies have been the safety of vessels and crew in the region, as well as the commercial consequences of trade disruption and sanctions.
Turkey has invoked the Montreux Convention's wartime clause, warning all countries not to pass warships through its Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits. According to the head of Ukraine's Maritime Administration, Ukrainian ports will remain closed until Russia's invasion ends. Russian shelling has caused damage to Mariupol's port. Furthermore, the Russian Navy has blocked about 100 foreign-flagged ships in Ukrainian seaports. The port of Berdiansk, located on the Sea of Azov, was also shelled, but it was unclear what was happening at the port. Many shipping companies have suspended service to affected Black Sea ports, with insurance premiums for voyages skyrocketing in recent days and at least three commercial ships bombed since February 24.
“According to the head of Ukraine's Maritime Administration, Ukrainian ports will remain closed until Russia's invasion ends.”
The conflict may also have an impact on Russian and Ukrainian spring grain prospects, which are expected to begin soon. The Azov Sea was closed to navigation on February 24, and while Russian Black Sea terminals continue to load and ship grain, new shipments are in doubt due to a lack of freight offers. Ukraine's military, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, no longer has extended access to the Azov Sea. It was on March 2, that the Ukrainian Navy had closed the northwestern part of the Black Sea to civilian ship navigation. According to the Ukrainian military, the move is intended to protect civilians from Russian Navy piracy. Ukraine claims that Russian Black Sea fleet warships threatened a cargo ship by forcing it into "a dangerous part" of the region so that "the occupants could use the civilians as a human shield." According to the statement, the Russians threatened to open fire if the vessel's crew did not comply.
In a separate incident, the Russian Navy reported that it had captured Ukrainian troops stationed near Ukraine's border with Romania on Snake Island. Maersk, a Danish shipping company, MSC, a Swiss company, and CMA CGM, a French company, all announced that they would no longer accept bookings for goods from Russia and would suspend most deliveries to the country.
Map from the NATO Shipping Center
All major Ukrainian ports are closed, and most vessels were diverted to the port of Constantine in Romania for discharge as a precaution. The risk of collateral damage is higher in the Black Sea's northwestern region. As a result of hostilities in the northwestern Black Sea, attacks have occurred on civilian vessels in Ukraine's territorial waters and adjacent high seas. Private shipping is advised to exercise caution and vigilance in the area. Shipping companies are also encouraged to maintain close contact with national and local maritime authorities. Shipping companies must meticulously document all incidents and report them to national and local maritime authorities. There have been numerous navigation warnings issued covering a wide range of warning areas, including landmine hazard areas. It is best to stay informed about transportation and stay away from places, warships, and military vehicles. You should always keep in mind that things can change during your trip.
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